Bills’ Second Straight Loss Sends Their 2021 Super Bowl Odds to +2200; Are They a Contender?

Josh Allen throwing pass

Josh Allen and the Bills have cooled after a 4-0 start with two straight losses. Photo from @PFF (Twitter).
  • The Buffalo Bills get dominated by the KC Chiefs, losing their second straight game
  • Buffalo’s Super Bowl odds have plummeted to as low as +2200
  • Read below to see if we think they’re worthy of a wager at these longer odds

There’s nothing quite like a hot start to an NFL season, only to watch it collapse in a heap.

Meet the current wreckage of the Buffalo Bills, who have lost their mojo after getting crushed in back-to-back losses against the AFC’s top tier, including Monday night’s dragging at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs.

As a result, they’ve slid down the Super Bowl odds board.

2021 Super Bowl Odds

Team 2020 Record Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 +375
Baltimore Ravens 5-1 +600
Seattle Seahawks 5-0 +800
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-0 +900
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2 +1100
Green Bay Packers 4-1 +1200
New Orleans Saints 3-2 +1400
Tennessee Titans 5-0 +1400
Los Angeles Rams 4-2 +1900
Buffalo Bills 4-2 +2200

Odds taken from BetMGM on October 19

Less than two weeks ago, these same Bills had just put it on the Las Vegas Raiders to move to 4-0, shortening their odds to a season-best +1333 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Now, at 4-2, they’re in 10th spot, with average Super Bowl odds of +2200.

Let’s see if there’s any value in jumping on the Bills right now.

Not A Good Two Weeks

It’s not like Buffalo played the entire NFC East to start their season 4-0. In fact, other than the Jets, who they whipped Week 1, each of their opponents can be described as “good, definitely not awful” NFL teams.

They’ve beaten the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders, all at least .500 or better. Miami has destroyed the 49ers (the defending NFC Champions), while the Raiders beat the defending champion-Chiefs at Arrowhead.

So it’s got to be discouraging to watch the Bills get outclassed Monday in a 26-17 loss to the Chiefs, a game far closer in score than on the field. Kansas City ran all over the Buffalo defense, their 245 rush yards the highest number posted by an Andy Reid team in KC. This was a defense that was surrendering 108.6 rush yards a game entering this contest.

When they finally did get to stuffing the run in the fourth quarter, they couldn’t stop Patrick Mahomes from converting time and again, especially a final clock-draining drive that ended in a field goal to put the game on ice. This defense is reeling.

This was after a no-show in Tennessee, where a pair of Josh Allen interceptions and poor special teams play allowed Ryan Tannehill and the Titans to pick them apart on short fields, part of a 42-16 whitewashing — to a Titans team that couldn’t practice for two weeks because of a COVID shutdown.

Powered by Allen’s spectacular start to the season, the Bills ranked second in the NFL in passing yards, piling up better than 308 yards through the air per contest. But he was limited to just 122 yards against KC, and that exposed another weakness — a running game that has gone dormant.

Buffalo racked up only 84 yards in the rain Monday, with Allen leading the team in rushing with 42 yards. They were held to 95 in the loss to Tennessee. In fact, the Bills’ top rush output this season by a player is 71 yards.

Take A Wait And See Approach

This was easily Buffalo’s toughest two-game slate all season, and they failed miserably against the AFC’s championship finalists from a year ago. But they’ve also been jerked around by schedule makers because of COVID-19 that hit the Titans, forcing the rescheduling of their game and giving them a short week to prepare in rain-soaked conditions.

They’ve got a get-right game next week against the Jets, before a showdown against the Patriots, where they can really put the AFC East boogeyman to bed early in the season and chase down that division title.

From there, they have a chance to see just how far they’ve come, as they battle Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

But even if they do win that one, it’s unlikely they’ll climb to anywhere near their best odds of the season. And unless you’re a real Bills believer, it’s hard to see them improving to a level that has me convinced they can win the Super Bowl. It’s a wager I would advise against.

For my money, the Steelers (+900) and Titans (+1400) are each a win away from jumping past these next-tier Super Bowl odds. I’d jump on them pretty quick.

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