Bills’ Super Bowl Odds Hold at +800 After Clinching Two-Seed in AFC

Josh Allen arms up celebrating

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/John Munson)
  • The Buffalo Bills saw their Super Bowl LV odds hold at +800 after clinching the AFC’s No. 2
  • Buffalo entered the season with +2233 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy
  • See below for information and analysis on whether or not the Bills are a good bet to win it all

These are heady times for the Bills Mafia. Thanks to a 12-3 record entering their Week 17 matchup with the Miami Dolphins, the AFC East champions had seen their Super Bowl LV odds shorten from +2233 before Week 1 to +800 at kickoff Sunday.

Well, after a 56-26 statement victory over the Fins (who were trying to clinch a playoff berth of their own in Week 17) the Bills’ odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Tampa are holding at +800 — at least for now.

You would think a 30-point victory over a division rival (with double-digit wins) that had everything to play for might have been enough for the once-woebegone franchise to see their title odds shorten. But perhaps bettors are taking a wait-and-see approach to head coach Sean McDermott’s squad.

2021 Super Bowl Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +190
Green Bay Packers +500
New Orleans Saints +700
Buffalo Bills +800
Seattle Seahawks +1100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1200
Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
Tennessee Titans +2100
Los Angeles Rams +2500

Odds taken Jan. 3 on FanDuel

Maybe there’s simply so much confidence in the Chiefs or either of the two top teams in the NFC — Green Bay or New Orleans — that the betting public has doubts about Buffalo performing on the playoff stage.

Whatever the case is, the Bills’ meteoric rise in Super Bowl odds over the course of the season has been impressive. But is it impressive enough to plunk money down on them now to win it all? Let’s analyze their case for maintaining those +800 Super Bowl odds.

Beasts Of The East

With the 56-26 Week 17 victory over Miami, Buffalo matched a franchise record with 13 wins, set in both 1990 and ’91, while also completing a franchise-first season sweep of their division rivals. That means McDermott — who has coached the Bills to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in Buffalo — had his team do something Pro Football Hall of Famers Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed and Bruce Smith never did in 2020. Then, there’s Allen.

The third-year quarterback went 18-of-25 for 224 yards passing and three touchdowns in just two quarters Sunday before being pulled for Matt Barkley at halftime.

And let’s not forget what Stefon Diggs has done in his first season in Western New York. The former Vikings wide receiver led the league in catches with 120 and receiving yards with 1,459 to go along with eight touchdown grabs.

So maybe we should start believing in Josh Allen and Co.

Red Hot

As noted above, the Bills feature a pair of position players that have done things Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill have not done. Plus, is there a hotter team entering the playoffs than Buffalo? Try this stat on for size.

Yes, Green Bay has the probable league MVP in Aaron Rodgers. And yes, teams like Tennessee and Baltimore feature a style of play that travels. But these Bills feel different than the ones that lost in the Wild Card round in 2017 and 2019.

This team has won six in a row, which would be 10 if not for that ridiculous DeAndre Hopkins catch on a Hail Mary in Arizona’s Week 10 32-30 win. The Bills have also knocked off a pair of playoff squads (Seattle and Pittsburgh) during that stretch. Meantime, Buffalo’s primary AFC obstacle, Kansas City — having already clinched the No. 1 seed — lost to the Chargers 38-21 at home.

Head-to-Head

So, how about the Chiefs? They took care of the Bills 26-17 in Buffalo back in Week 6. Mahomes was an efficient 21-of-26 passing, but only threw for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the victory.

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Allen did not fare as well, going only 14-of-27 passing for 127 yards to go along with two touchdowns and an interception. It was KC’s defense that was the standout performer, holding a prolific Bills offense to only 206 total yards.

If the AFC’s top two teams meet again in three weeks in a possible conference title game at Arrowhead, rest assured McDermott’s team will have revenge on its mind.

Considering Buffalo’s historic season in 2020, featuring seasons unlike any other from Allen and Diggs, the Bills are a good bet at +800 to win a franchise-first Super Bowl.

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