- The 10-5 Miami Dolphins face the 12-3 Buffalo Bills in an NFL game slated for Saturday
- Current record: 23-23, +1.05 units won
- The best prop wagers to play out of this tilt are listed below
On the surface, it might seem like the Miami Dolphins have much more to play for on Sunday than the Buffalo Bills.
The 10-5 Dolphins require a win to lock up an AFC Wild Card playoff position. The 12-3 Bills already have clinched the AFC East title.
However, with a win Buffalo is assured of the #2 seed in the AFC. That would mean at least two home playoff games, as well as avoiding a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs until the AFC Championship Game.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott is assuring everyone that he’ll be playing his starters in order to get the victory. That’s vital information entering Week 17 play when some playoff teams have already indicated that they’ll rest key starters.
The Bills are 3-point home favorites for the game with a 1pm EST kickoff. Check out our updated injury reports, as well as other betting options. Let’s start with the lines for player props.
Dolphins vs Bills Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Mia)||24.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115)||195.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||1.5 (Ov +130 / Un -155)|
|Josh Allen (Buf)||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Running Backs||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Receiving and Rush Yards|
|Myles Gaskin (Mia)||15.5 (Ov +112 | Un -139)||80.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||110.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Devin Singletary (Buf)||10.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||65.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Zack Moss (Buf)||13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||65.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Mike Gesicki (Mia)||4.5 (Ov -125 / Un +100)||49.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|DeVante Parker (Mia)||4.5 (Ov -150 / Un +130)||55.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||21.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Gabriel Davis (Buf)||3.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
Odds as of January 2
Prop #1: Bills Will Hold Tua In Check
Buffalo is the NFL’s #8-ranked pass defense. The Bills have held opponents to 222.8 yards per game through the air.
The past two weeks, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was held to 145 yards passing by the New England Patriots (#7 NFL pass defense) and to 94 yards by the Las Vegas Raiders (#25 NFL pass defense).
Brian Flores with good answer asked about sticking with Tua Tagovailoa. He says Tua has brought a spark/played well in a lot of other games & he doesn’t make decisions based on one play/quarter. He adds everyone wants to make QB decisions for them without all the info they have.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 27, 2020
On top of that, the rookie Miami QB is nursing a banged up left thumb. He’s a southpaw, so that damaged digit could impact his grip and ability to throw the football.
Tagovailoa has passed for more than 195.5 yards just three times in nine games. The Buffalo defense will make it three for 10.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa under 195.5 passing yards (-112), 1 unit.
Prop #2: It Will Be Time For Davis To Shine
Cole Beasley (leg) is out for the Bills. Stefon Diggs is nursing a sore foot and his playing time figures to be limited. John Brown, just back in action after a stint on IR from an ankle injury.
Sunday is going to be Gabriel Davis day in Buffalo. The rookie wideout has caught 33 passes for 492 yards and six touchdowns.
Most Underrated Rookie in the NFL – Gabriel Davis pic.twitter.com/BwqpyqT9ZM
— ???????????シ (@AdamBug1) January 1, 2021
He’s gone over 3.5 receptions in only three games, but he should do that for fun on Sunday.
Pick: Gabriel Davis over 3.5 receptions (-112), 1 unit.
Dolphins vs Bills Touchdown Props
|Player||Odds To Score First TD||Odds To Score Any TD|
|Myles Gaskin (Mia)||+700||+115|
|Stefon Diggs (Buf)||+800||+105|
|Jake Allen (Buf)||+900||+200|
|Zack Moss (Buf)||+1000||+175|
|Devin Singletary (Buf)||+1100||+200|
|Gabriel Davis (Buf)||+1300||+240|
|Mike Gesicki (Mia)||+1300||+225|
|DeVante Parker (Mia)||+1300||+225|
|Lynn Bowden Jr (Mia)||+1500||+275|
|John Brown (Buf)||+1600||+300|
|Isaiah McKenzie (Buf)||+1600||+300|
|Salvon Ahmed (Mia)||+2000||+375|
|Dawson Knox (Buf)||+1800||+350|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Mia)||+2200||+450|
|Isaiah Ford (Mia)||+2500||+500|
|Mack Hollins (Mia)||+3000||+600|
Who Are the Best Bets To Score a Touchdown?
The Bills have found the end zone first in four of their past six games. Tight end Dawson Knox has caught three TD passes over the past five games. Two of them were the first TDs of the game.
Myles Gaskin gets it RIGHT BACK.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 27, 2020
Running back Myles Gaskin is holding the hot hand for the Dolphins of late in terms of breaking the plane. He’s scored all six of his TDs this season over Miami’s past five games.
Gaskin is proven as verstaile as he is productive when it comes to finding paydirt. He’s run for two TDs, and caught passes to score the other four times.
- Dawson Knox first TD scorer +1800, 1 unit
- Myles Gaskin anytime TD scorer +115, 1 unit.