Heat vs Thunder: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – January 4, 2021

Southeast Division opponents meet when the Miami Heat (2-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (2-3) at American Airlines Arena, tipping off at 7:30 PM ET on Monday, January 4, 2021. The Heat are favorites in the game, the first matchup between the squads this season. The over/under for the matchup is set at .

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of January 3, 2021, 11:55 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Thunder Betting Odds

Injury Report as of January 4

Heat:
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Illness),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Right Knee)

Thunder:
Aleksej Pokusevski: Day To Day (Concussion),
Ty Jerome: Out (Left Ankle),
Trevor Ariza: Out (Personal)

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Thunder (+8)

Pick OU:
Over (213)

Prediction:
Thunder 110 Heat 104
Click here to claim your free sports bet (up to $500) at William Hill!The model’s predicted total (213.3 points) and the William Hill set total (213 points) are virtually the same for this contest.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Bam Adebayo 5 19.0 8.0 4.4 1.6 1.0 0.0
Tyler Herro 5 15.8 5.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 1.8
Goran Dragic 5 15.2 3.2 5.2 1.0 0.0 1.0
Duncan Robinson 5 11.0 4.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.8
Precious Achiuwa 5 7.8 4.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.0

Heat Player Props

  • Bam Adebayo’s rebounding prop over/under for the game is set at 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 rebounds higher than his season average of 8.0.
  • Goran Dragic’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 22.5, 1.1 less than his season average of 23.6.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 3.5, 0.7 shots greater than his season average of 2.8.
  • Adebayo’s steals prop total for the game is set at 0.5, 1.1 steals lower than his season average of 1.6.

Thunder Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5 18.8 5.2 6.8 0.6 0.6 1.8
Luguentz Dort 5 14.6 3.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 2.4
Darius Bazley 5 11.2 8.6 1.4 0.2 1.4 1.0
Mike Muscala 5 11.0 3.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 2.2
Hamidou Diallo 5 8.6 5.8 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2

Thunder Player Props

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s PRA prop total for the contest is posted at 28.5, 2.3 lower than his season average of 30.8.
  • Darius Bazley’s rebounding prop total for the contest is set at 5.5 boards, 3.1 rebounds less than his season average of 8.6.
  • Luguentz Dort’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.9 shots less than his season average of 2.4.
  • Bazley’s blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 0.5, 0.9 blocks lower than his season average of 1.4.

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat make 46.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is two percentage points higher than the Thunder have allowed to their opponents (44.9%).
  • Miami has a 2-2 record against the spread and a 2-2 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 44.9% from the field.
  • Oklahoma City has a 2-0 record against the spread and a 2-0 record overall when allowing its opponents to knock down more than 46.9% of their shots from the field.
  • The Thunder’s 44.7% shooting percentage from the field this season is .
  • Oklahoma City has put together a 2-1 record against the spread and a 1-2 straight up record in games it shoots better than 44.7% from the field.
  • Miami is 2-0 against the spread and 2-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 44.7% from the field.
  • The Heat’s 33.7% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.4 percentage points lower than opponents of the Thunder have shot from deep (34.1%).
  • Miami has a 2-1 record against the spread and a 2-1 record overall when the team hits more than 34.1% of its three-point shots.
  • Oklahoma City has put up a 1-1 against the spread while going 1-1 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 33.7% from downtown.
  • The Thunder shoot 32.5% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 7.6 percentage points lower than the Heat have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (40.1%).
  • Oklahoma City is 0-0 against the spread and 0-0 overall when shooting over 40.1% as a team from three-point range.
  • Miami is 1-0 ATS and 1-1 overall in games it shoots above 32.5% from deep.
  • The Heat hit 11.2 three-pointers per game this season, 1.6 fewer makes per game than the Thunder allow (12.8).
  • When Oklahoma City makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 2-2 against the spread and 1-3 overall. When Miami is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 1-2 ATS and 1-3 straight up.
  • The Thunder are the 12th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Heat give up the 29th-fewest makes from deep.

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Heat vs Thunder Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Thunder AVG Thunder Rank
28th 103.4 Points Scored 102.6 29th
14th 111.2 Points Allowed 109.4 12th
30th 40.2 Rebounds 46 10th
30th 5.8 Off. Rebounds 7.8 27th
22nd 11.2 3pt Made 12.8 12th
13th 24.4 Assists 22.4 25th
30th 19.2 Turnovers 16 24th

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