Packers Get Blown Out by Bucs and See Their 2021 Super Bowl Odds Fade to +1100

Green Bay Packers

The Packers saw their Super Bowl 55 odds drop after getting blown out by the Buccaneers on Sunday. Photo by @NFLonCBS (Twitter).
  • The Green Bay Packers Super Bowl 55 odds dropped from +833 to +1150 after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6
  • Aaron Rodgers was 16-of-35 for 160 yards without a touchdown and two interceptions, including a pick-six
  • Read below for analysis on whether or not Green Bay is now a value to win it all at its new price

Raymond James Stadium has been a House of Horrors for Aaron Rodgers over the course of his career. And after a 38-10 blowout loss to the Buccaneers in Week 6, the future Hall of Fame quarterback saw his team’s Super Bowl 55 odds drop from +833 to +1150.

Rodgers’ passer rating of 35.4 against Tampa Bay was the second-lowest in a game that he started and didn’t leave because of injury.

But as bad as Sunday was for Matt LaFleur’s team, Green Bay is still only a half-game out of the NFC North lead, trailing the 5-1 Chicago Bears.

2021 Super Bowl Odds

Team 2020 Record Super Bowl Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 4-1 +430
Baltimore Ravens 5-1 +550
Seattle Seahawks 5-0 +800
Green Bay Packers 4-1 +1150
New Orleans Saints 3-2 +1200
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-0 +1200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2 +1300
Buffalo Bills 4-1 +1700
Los Angeles Rams 4-2 +1700
Tennessee Titans 5-0 +1700

Odds taken October 18th from FanDuel.

The final score from Sunday made it seem worse than it was for the Packers. Green Bay actually got out to a 10-0 lead, but the game turned in the second quarter.

The Jamel Dean 32-yard interception return for a touchdown was the first turnover by the Packers this season and only the third pick-six of Rodgers’ career. But it shifted momentum completely to the Bucs. Tampa Bay scored 38 unanswered points as Todd Bowles’ defense pressured Rodgers all day. The Bucs’ D had five sacks, 13 quarterback hits and two picks.

Plus, Green Bay had a difficult time stopping Tampa’s rushing attack, giving up 158 yards on the ground. The Pack entered the game averaging only 106 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Packers’ odds to win the Super Bowl took a similar beating to the one they took on the field Sunday.

So, was this outcome a one-off? Or was it a harbinger of things to come? Was Green Bay’s 4-0 start smoke-and-mirrors? Did they deserve to be a top-four Super Bowl contender before getting embarrassed at the site of the NFL title game in early February? We answer those questions and offer betting advice moving forward.

Not-So-Happy-Place

Simply put, bad things happen to Rodgers at Ray Jay. Twice he has left the Buccaneers’ home stadium in Tampa, hurt. During his first year as the franchise’s starting quaterback — after taking over for Brett Favre — Rodgers suffered a shoulder injury there. Then, during his second MVP season of 2014, he suffered a calf injury. Sunday, he was physically beaten, but emerged unscathed.

I’m chalking this one up to a one-off in an historically unfriendly venue to one of the game’s elite signal-callers. Some venues just give some players fits. Raymond James is that place for Rodgers. If you’re gonna fade Green Bay as a Super Bowl LV contender, do it because AR is 1-3 all-time at the stadium — not because the Packers aren’t a legit threat to get there.

2020 NFL MVP Odds Tracker

Still Elite

A 38-10 loss is not what any team wants — especially coming off a bye week. But let’s not forget: Green Bay through the first four games of the season was historically good. Rodgers had put up over 1,200 yards through the air, while tossing 13 touchdowns against zero interceptions. Plus, the Packers became the first team in NFL history to score 150 points in its first four games without turning the ball over.

Yes, they racked up those stats against the Vikings, Lions, Saints and Falcons. All inferior opponents. But also, all NFC foes, and two divisional foes. Green Bay is still very much one of the elite teams in the conference through the first six weeks of the season.

About Those Injuries

While Rodgers was OK, a few of his teammates did get dinged up. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari left in the second half with a chest injury and did not return. Meantime, defensive tackle Tyler Lancaster and safety Darnell Savage also were hurt. If any of them are on the shelf for too long — especially Bakhtiari — Green Bay might be in trouble. But if they can bounce back, there’s no reason to fade Green Bay.

The fact of the matter is, after the Seahawks, the NFC isn’t great this season. New Orleans has uncharacteristically struggled, while the Rams suffered a disappointing divisional loss to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. And while Tampa’s win over Green Bay was big (especially considering future tie-breakers), I’m not buying the Bucs as legit Super Bowl contenders.

Invest in the Packers while you can.

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