Serie A Matchday 16 Odds & Picks: AC Milan vs Juventus and More Midweek Action

Serie A Matchday 16 features AC Milan's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma

AC Milan’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma celebrates after AC Milan’s Franck Kessie, scored his side’s second goal during a Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Fiornentina, at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Serie A Matchday 16 takes place on Wednesday, January 6, 2020 with ten matches
  • Can Juventus shorten the gap between them and leaders AC Milan when the two meet at 2:45 pm EST?
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 16 here

Serie A returned after a short break this past weekend and is right back at it in midweek action with a full slate of matches for Serie A Matchday 16 on Wednesday. The round kicks off with Cagliari hosting Benevento at 6:30 am EST Wednesday morning.

Milan and Inter are both still flying at the top of the table and Inter could find themselves on top before Milan hosts Juventus in a huge afternoon clash. Elsewhere, teams like Spezia and Parma will look to snap three-match losing streaks, while Bologna has now run off four-straight draws. While Lazio are odds-on favorites at home to Fiorentina, bettors should note that star striker Ciro Immobile could be a doubt with injury after missing training today.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 16 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 16 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Cagliari vs Benevento +140 +240 +187
Atalanta vs Parma -350 +500 +850
Bologna vs Udinese +162 +230 +160
Crotone vs Roma +650 +375 -250
Lazio vs Fiorentina -134 +280 +320
Sampdoria vs inter Milan +500 +320 -200
Sassuolo vs Genoa -134 +260 +350
Torino vs Verona +150 +230 +175
Napoli vs Spezia -500 +600 +1400
AC Milan vs Juventus +210 +240 +125

All odds taken January 4 at Bet365

Atalanta vs Parma

Atalanta will look to crack the top six with a win over Parma when the two meet at 9:00 am EST on Wednesday.

After a period that saw La Dea win just once in six matches, they are now undefeated in five at 3-2-0. Their latest result was an impressive 5-2 mauling of sixth-place Sassuolo on Sunday. Atalanta was in control the entire match with Sassuolo not scoring until late-on in the 75′ minute.

In their past five, their only dropped points came on the road, 1-1 with Juventus and 2-2 away to Bologna. In the Bologna match, they were up 2-0 and coughed up the lead late. Otherwise, they had 4-1 and 3-0 home wins over Roma and Fiorentina respectively.

It’s hard to find too many positives about this Parma side so far this season. They find themselves just above the relegation places in 16th place with 12 points and a 2-6-7 (WDL) record. On Sunday against fellow strugglers Torino who were themselves in the relegation zone entering the weekend, they failed to score a single goal and fell 3-0 in defeat.

At home to a Torino side that has allowed the second-most goals in the league (32) it was just another low-light on the season. Parma has now lost three-straight, are winless in six and have scored just three goals in that stretch. Their 13 total goals scored on the season are also a league-worst.

On the road Parma is 1-2-4 and have conceded 17 goals in those ten matches, allowing multiple goals in six of those seven matches.

Atalanta are the third-highest scorers in the league and have the fourth and third-most shots and shots on target overall. Further, La Dea are the team with the most and second-most middle third and attacking third touches in the league respectively according to FBRef.

Atalanta hasn’t failed to score multiple goals against Parma in any of their past four meetings. Last season La Dea won 2-1 and 5-0. In the 2018/19 campaign, they also won 3-0 and 3-1.

Parma are traveling to Bergamo at the wrong time and should be in for a long day where Atalanta can control the match and win by a couple of goals.

Pick: Atalanta -1.5 (-143)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Sampdoria vs Inter Milan

Another 9:00 am EST match sees 11th placed Sampdoria hosting second-placed Inter Milan.

Sampdoria dropped a 1-0 result to Roma on Saturday, while Inter scored six in a 6-2 rout of newcomers Crotone earlier in the day. It’s not like Crotone’s goals came well after the match got away from them either. The Pythagoreans struck first against Inter, went into the half drawn 2-2 and one of the goals they conceded was an own goal.

Unfortunately for their backers hoping for a huge upset, they were well overmatched in the second half and Lautaro Martinez went on to score a hat-trick.

Last year’s results saw Inter win 2-1 and 3-1 and stretched their winning streak over Samp to six-straight.

There’s reason to believe another high-scoring win could be in the cards this week. Along with Spezia, Sampdoria is tied for the most OVERs this season at 12-3 to OVER 2.5 totals. Meanwhile, Inter’s matches have seen the highest goals-per-game this season at 3.9. Sampdoria’s matches average 3.2.

While Inter, with just one loss, and riding an eight-match winning streak are just a single point behind leaders AC Milan, they’ve kept just three clean sheets on the season.

They’ve already conceded goals to several offensively-challenged sides this season and Sampdoria are more than capable of contributing to the scoresheet. The Blucerchiati have scored in 12 of their 15 matches.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+105)

AC Milan vs Juventus

Easily the top match of Serie A Round 16 sees leaders AC Milan (37 points) hosting fifth-place Juventus (27 points) in a standalone afternoon match at 2:45 pm EST.

At 7-6-1 (WDL), Juve have been steady, but unspectacular this season. Their past four have read: 1-1 draw (Atalanta), 4-0 win (Parma), 3-0 loss (Fiorentina) and finally 4-1 win (Udinese) this past weekend.

Juve’s matches have been much tighter than Andrea Pirlo would like and they’ve struggled to turn draws into wins. But with just one defeat and only 14 goals conceded after 14 matches, their season is still in a good spot.

However, at ten points behind the leaders, they’ll need all three points in this match to try and make up ground.

Milan stands as the only undefeated team and dodged a bullet in what could have been defeat to Benevento this past weekend. Milan scored early in the 15′ minute on Sunday but was reduced to ten men soon after when Sandro Tonali took a straight red card.

After just barely holding off Benvento’s pressure to end the half, Milan were able to double their lead through Ante Rebic early in the second half. Benevento held 61-percent possession and held the advantage in attempts (14-5) and shots on goal (5-2), yet Milan put in an incredible defensive performance to maintain Gianluigi Donnarumma’s clean sheet and take another three points.

The win extends two streaks for Milan which now sees them undefeated in 27-straight Serie A matches, while also scoring multiple goals in 17-straight.

Milan hasn’t had a ton of success against Juventus in recent history. After a win in the Super Cup and Serie A way back in 2016, Juventus were 9-2-0 (WDL) in the next 11 meetings across all competitions. But perhaps the tide has begun to turn as both of those draws came in 2020. Milan then finally broke their winless streak against Juve with a 4-2 win in the league, winning 4-2 at home in July.

Truthfully I think grabbing +210 on a Milan outright win is great value, despite Zlatan Ibrahimovic being confirmed out once again. I think this is the year we see a different winner of the Scudetto and a Milan title win was my best futures bet for 2021. But, the champions will surely come to play as well and a draw could also be in the cards. They will though, be arriving in Milan later than scheduled, delaying their departure after some recent positive COVID tests for Juve.

Therefore, being able to get plus-money on a Milan “Draw No Bet” (win if Milan wins, push if the game ends drawn) is my best bet.

Pick: AC Milan Draw No Bet (+120)

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