With the NFL’s regular season coming to a close on Sunday, we now have the playoff picture in front of us and just 14 teams remain fighting for the Lombardi Trophy. That number will quickly see six clubs be erased in a week’s time once Wild Card Weekend is underway but, for now, we have over a dozen teams duking it out for a ticket to Tampa Bay to reach Super Bowl LV.
As for who has the best chances to not only get there but also win it, the NFL odds over at William Hill Sportsbook still show that it’ll be the Chiefs going back-to-back. However, their odds have slipped over the last few weeks to close out the regular season, despite being the betting favorite. K.C. was as strong as +160 to win the Super Bowl, but dipped to +170 after Week 16, and is now +190. Again, those are still great odds for the Chiefs, but notable that the public seems to be putting its money elsewhere to drive that number in the other direction.
According to CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh’s simulations, the Chiefs win the Super Bowl 24.1% of the time, which isn’t particularly great value even at +190. However, that’s over 9% higher than any other team in the simulation. As the No. 1 seed in the conference, the Chiefs will face the lowest seed that advances into the Divisional Round, which means their opponent will be either the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Colts.
Meanwhile, as the Chiefs odds dwindle a bit, the Packers are continuing to surge with Aaron Rodgers leading the pack for league MVP. After sitting at +550 heading into Week 17, Green Bay’s win over the Chicago Bears to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC boosted its odds of winning the Super Bowl to +450 heading into Wild Card Weekend. That’s the best in the NFC and Oh’s simulation sees them winning it all 15.3% of the time, which is the best mark in the conference. The Packers have won six straight to end the regular season and have averaged 33.5 points per game over that stretch. If they can keep that up against either the Washington Football Team, Buccaneers, Rams, or Bears in the divisional round, they should be able to reach another NFC Championship.
Before we jump into the rest of these teams, here’s a look at the entire list entering Wild Card Weekend.
Super Bowl odds
- Kansas City Chiefs (+190)
- Green Bay Packers (+450)
- Buffalo Bills (+700)
- New Orleans Saints (+750)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1100)
- Seattle Seahawks (+1200)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000)
- Los Angeles Rams (+2800)
- Tennessee Titans (+3000)
- Indianapolis Colts (+4000)
- Cleveland Browns (+5000)
- Chicago Bears (+8000)
- Washington Football Team (+8000)
It is worth pointing out the Buffalo Bills, who have leaped up to own the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs. Heading into Week 17, Buffalo was +900, but they continue to look like arguably the hottest team in the NFL. If you were on this train early and were able to place this future back in Week 14 when Buffalo was +1600, you should be feeling pretty good about yourself. That said, they have just a 9.2% chance to hoist the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy this year, according to Oh’s simulation, and are just a 60% favorite to beat the Colts this weekend. While the road may be tough, Buffalo does seem to be peaking at just the right moment.
If value is what you’re looking for, the Baltimore Ravens present an interesting path. At +1100, their odds of winning it all in Oh’s projections are at 8.8%. That’s better than the No. 3 seeded Pittsburgh Steelers (4.5%) and not far off from the Buffalo Bills. Baltimore really flipped a switch starting in Week 13 and have just torn through their schedule to crash the playoff party. Over that five-game winning streak to end the regular season, the Ravens offense averaged 37.2 points per game and the defense held opponents to 17.8 points. Baltimore is also a road favorite against the Titans in the opening round of the playoffs.
As for the New Orleans Saints, they present strong value as well at +750 as Oh’s projections having them win the Super Bowl in 15.1% of simulations. That’s essentially neck-and-neck with the Packers and the third-best in the entire NFL. The Saints did catch a break with their first game being scheduled for Sunday, which means star running back Alvin Kamara can play. If Michael Thomas can also return, New Orleans will be fully loaded to make what may be one final push to get Drew Brees another Super Bowl.